[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DON IS CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 91.8W AT 29/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...OR ABOUT
365 MI...590 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING WNW AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. DON HAS 10-15 KT OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE STORM. DRY AIR IS ALSO
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT HELPS IMPEDE
INTENSIFICATION. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE CENTER FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
91W-94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER
TO THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM
21N17W TO 11N19W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE
IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N35W TO 6N38W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSING ON A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 8N38W. AN AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MOSTLY N
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 22N65W TO
12N69W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. BOTH LOWER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AND NEAR 700 MB MODEL EVALUATION INDICATES THE WAVE
REMAINS BROAD. THIS IS CONFIRMED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
65W-73W WITH HEAVIEST CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF 11N20W TO 9N55W TO 10N36W THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N40W
TO 5N45W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N45W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DON CONTINUES TO TRACK WNW TOWARDS THE TEXAS
COAST. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 90W-92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 15N. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N
COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 72W-84W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MAJORITY OF THE ATLC BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N39W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N50W THEN WESTWARD
ALONG 30N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
ELSEWHERE...THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER
PRODUCERS IN THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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