[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000
UTC WAS 1.67 INCHES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 50
MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. ANYONE WHO LIVES NEAR THE COAST AND/OR ANYONE WHO HAS
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. NO PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NEARBY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE...
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N53W 9N54W 8N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W TO THE SOUTH OF
23N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N53W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 13N60W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N
TO 22N5W TO 18N9W 19N14W 12N20W 10N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N29W TO 6N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST
OF 77W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE REMNANT OF A SMALL
YUCATAN CHANNEL CYCLONIC CENTER...TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 22N96W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND BEYOND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THESE FEATURES ARE PUSHING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
21N85W...TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/0000 UTC WAS 1.67 INCHES. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE FROM
20N67W TO 14N68W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 85 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 60W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
13N60W NEAR BARBADOS. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/0000 UTC WAS 0.48 INCHES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST
OF 77W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH
32N22W TO 28N25W AND 26N29W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N29W
TO 32N40W AND 32N49W. A SECOND TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 32N49W...
THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
25N53W...TO 13N60W NEAR BARBADOS AT THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS
0.48 INCHES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN
53W AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 31N50W
28N60W 29N73W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ALONG 29N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT/FG





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