[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BRET AT 22/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
37.7N 64.2W. BRET IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KT...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY AT 22/1500 UTC WAS NEAR 45.5N
37.0W. CINDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...AND CINDY COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON CINDY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC SW OF CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 15N26W TO 7N30W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CYCLONIC TURNING IS WELL OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 29W-37W. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 325 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 19N54W TO 10N56W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE ON
TPW. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING IS VERY CLEAR ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 55W-64W. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS ALREADY REACHING THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS N OF MARTINIQUE TO PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES N
OF 14N THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 23N86W TO INLAND OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS LIMITED. SCATTERED WEAK
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS AFFECTING
MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA..

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND BRIEFLY ENTERS THE
ATLC OCEAN FROM THE COAST OF THE GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO
12N19W...BECOMING THE ITCZ FROM THIS POINT TO 13N25W. THEN...IT
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N32W CONTINUING ALONG 7N40W
6N45W TO 9N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 38W. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
MENTIONED ABOVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
4W9-54W...AND FROM 6N-10N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DETECTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY S OF 26N E OF
85W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE BASINS
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN 100-140 NM
BETWEEN 85W-92W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N
INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF ARE RELATIVELY DRY WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SSE TO
RETURN SURFACE FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
VERY LIMITED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS ONLY GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS N
OF 20N W OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
IS ALREADY BRINGING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF MARTINIQUE TO
PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST GENERATING
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
N OF 14N DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FAR SW BASIN...WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...DUE TO
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 10-20 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WITH
FAIR WEATHER...ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES NEAR
40N30W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SWWRD TO
THE FAR W ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS REFLECTED ON THE W ATLC
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 68W-72W. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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