[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 220846
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND OF MODEST
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER
RAGGED IN APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM
SAB...AND 49 KT FROM THE MOST RECENT CIRA-AMSU OVERPASS.

CINDY IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/25. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

CINDY IS ALREADY OVER 20C SSTS...AND ONLY COLDER WATER LIES AHEAD OF
IT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER...AND DISSIPATE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES BY 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP KABL AT 06Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 44.5N  39.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 46.7N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 50.0N  29.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 52.7N  21.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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