[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 212038
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL.  A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24.  CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 42.3N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 44.5N  41.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 47.9N  36.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 51.6N  29.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z 55.0N  22.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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