[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 20/0300 UTC IS NEAR 30.6N
75.0W MOVING NORTHEAST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 30N76W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 4 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE WARMED QUITE A BIT DURING
THE LAST 4 HOURS...AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS AND SPAN THE
BAHAMAS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.
A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 12N39W. CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND
46W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N
BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 18N TO 25N.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS...WITHIN 120 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA
FROM 22N70W TO 16N71W AND TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE
AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 22N69W...
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 14N72W 13N75W
TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND HISPANIOLA FROM
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
23N87W...THROUGH BELIZE...INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/NORTHEASTERN
BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN HONDURAS AND
GUATEMALA...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN LA ISLA DE JUVENTUD OF CUBA TO CUBA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N
TO 22N5W 16N13W TO 5N24W 11N37W...AND 7N40W TO 6N45W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N45W TO 6N55W ALONG THE COAST OF SURINAME.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS. ONLY REMNANT ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
FROM 23N TO 27N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA
FROM 22N70W TO 16N71W AND TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE
AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 22N69W...
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 14N72W 13N75W
TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 23N87W...THROUGH BELIZE...INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/
NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND HISPANIOLA FROM
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS.
A WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN LA ISLA DE
JUVENTUD OF CUBA TO CUBA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING ON 19/1200 UTC WAS
1.34 INCHES. THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR BARBADOS DURING THE SAME TIME
WAS 0.91 INCHES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE STATIONARY
FRONT REACHES 32N62W. THE STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 33N TO 34N BETWEEN 53W AND 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC WAS
1.75 INCHES. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC WAS 1.35 INCHES. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS ARE FROM 19N TO 24N
BETWEEN 54W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 29N45W AND 24N74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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