[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 200239
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

BRET HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION.  THE CYCLONE STILL CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER
AND PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  IN
FACT...IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN
INTENSITY AROUND 0000 UTC...AND THE INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS
CORROBORATED BY A TAFB DATA-T ESTIMATE OF T3.0 USING THE SHEAR
PATTERN.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE
STORM IN A FEW HOURS TO ASSESS IF THERE HAVE BEEN ANY CHANGES.
STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING BRET...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OPEN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO A TROUGH
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72
HOURS.

BRET APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN BUT SHOULD RESUME A
MOTION OF 040 DEGREES AT 7 KT SHORTLY.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE
FLOW.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 30.6N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 31.5N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 32.8N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 34.2N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 35.8N  68.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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