[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 192033
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

BRET HAS A DISHEVELED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES...WITH AN
EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A SMALL PATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  IN SPITE OF THIS...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY
WAS NOT A GENEROUS ONE AND THE STORM IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH...FOR
NOW.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT AND EVEN HIGHER SURFACE
WINDS WERE SHOWN BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT.
HOWEVER THE SFMR WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT INFLATED BY AN
ACCOMPANYING SPIKE OF HEAVY RAIN.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
MAINTAINED AT 45 KT.  STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TOLL ON
BRET AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION AFTER 3
DAYS.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 035/7.  BRET IS MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CONTINUED GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 30.4N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 31.1N  74.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 32.4N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 33.7N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 35.1N  69.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 38.5N  65.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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