[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 19/0300 UTC IS NEAR 28.7N
76.6W MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. A GENERAL
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 14N
BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
66W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 20N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 53W
AND 60W...AND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS WAVE IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A 32N43W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
20N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM
22N75W TO JAMAICA TO 13N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N74W...AND
THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 18N81W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N85W JUST OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN
HONDURAS...CONTINUING BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR.
SOME RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N
TO 22N5W 20N12W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 16N16W 12N25W 10N33W AND
7N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N42W TO 9N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N37W 6N44W 7N50W 10N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES ON TOP OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW COMPARATIVELY WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THERE. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE MORE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM DORA
THAT IS ABOUT 320 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
66W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 20N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N75W TO JAMAICA TO 13N78W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO 15N74W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 18N81W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N85W JUST OFF THE
COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS...CONTINUING BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR. SOME RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. IT IS NOT
EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE
TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH WHICH
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PASSING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 33N57W TO 31N73W
31N73W 30N78W AND 27N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE
WEST OF BERMUDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N54W TO
31N59W TO 32N63W 34N67W AND 33N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 51W
AND 52W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N70W CYCLONIC
CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W ARE TO THE EAST OF THE 20N70W
CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N43W TO 25N44W
AND 15N48W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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