[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM BRET IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 77.3W AT 18/1800 UTC
MOVING NNE AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 76W-78W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W...AND
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-66W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA FROM 25N0W TO 24N7W TO
THE COAST AT 21N17W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 16N23W TO 10N26W TO
6N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 20W-24W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
14W-29W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 21N97W 18N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 95W-99W. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND S LOUISIANA ALONG
32N89W 29N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 89W-94W. ANOTHER AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
85W-88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER
WITH 10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF AND E TEXAS...AS
WELL AS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND
COSTA RICA FROM 9N70W TO BEYOND 10N85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 66W-76W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...
COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA....FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS OFF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
14N82W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 22N68W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER
PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. BRET IS N OF THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N53W 30N55W
32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE
1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N29W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
32N45W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE T.S. BRET MOVES NE...AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES W AT 20 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/PAW






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