[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N26W 14N28W 10N29W.
THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MASS OF MOISTURE IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N61W 14N63W 10N64W AT
THE VENEZUELA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N60W...ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N72W...TO 13N73W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND
62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
15N TO THE EAST OF 75W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 75W TO THE NORTH OF
16N75W 14N67W 13N60W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N54W AND BEYOND.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N
TO 17N10W TO 10N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N30W TO 11N40W...
AND FROM 8N42W TO THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND
BRAZIL NEAR 4N52W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 29N...IN THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES
AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS ON TOP OF THE WESTERNMOST
POINT OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ACTUALLY COVERS THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N INLAND
TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE NEAR A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS THE
SAME LOW CENTER THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ALSO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N84W ON TOP
OF THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF CUBA. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EVEN EXTENDS
FROM THE 22N84W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 13N85W IN NORTH CENTRAL
NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 75W TO THE NORTH OF 16N75W 14N67W
13N60W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N54W AND ENDS NEAR 13N61W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N60W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO 17N72W...TO 13N73W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONCENTRATED FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 75W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO 12N78W...ACROSS AND BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 41N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 33N69W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STILL
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN...REACHING THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE COASTS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N53W TO 26N52W...TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 19N54W...TOWARD 13N61W AT THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONCENTRATED FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 24N58W TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net