[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS ANALYZED FROM 15N52W
TO 8N57W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W/82W
BETWEEN 12N-18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 80W-87W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED ALONG 96W
S OF 23N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO INLAND OVER MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ALONG 23N6W S THROUGH
A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 18N13W INTO E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W ALONG
12N20W TO 9N32W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 7N44W TO
8N54W THEN RESUMES NEAR 9N59W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
9N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N
E OF 33W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE
W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 12N49W TO 7N45W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND N
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N E OF 96W ANCHORED NEAR THE BORDER OF
NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...AND GEORGIA. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA NNW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N91W COVERING THE SE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 87W-93W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N WITH A
1019 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER FLORIDA MOVING
INTO THE E GULF WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM THE APALACHEE
BAY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER CUBA
AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
N/CENTRAL GULF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 86W-90W. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST
BETWEEN DESTIN FLORIDA AND GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI AND COULD MOVE
INTO THE GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA INTO
MEXICO TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WED WHERE IT WILL GET ABSORBED INTO A STRONG MONSOON TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LEAVING AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PANAMA NNW TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CUBA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE S
COAST BETWEEN 81W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG
11N79W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ARE USHERING IN
SOME FAST MOVING LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 15N E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT AND WILL
BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH BY
THURSDAY. THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE WED/EARLY THU
AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC WILL
REMAIN FROM CENTRAL ATLC INTO E CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

LOOKING AHEAD....AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRENGTHENED SW
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY
DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE PARTICULARLY
ENHANCED IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE THIS DEVELOPING DANGEROUS SITUATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS AND COVERING
THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 65W. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR
32N54W EXTENDING S TO 22N55W. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA ABOUT 475 NM WSW FROM THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW THROUGH 32N45W THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N70W
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE
ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN FROM CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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