[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N28W 10N29W 5N30W SW
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A DISTINCT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
DISCERNIBLE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N58W 7N60W
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 20 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 55W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N67W 20N69W 16N70W OVER HISPANIOLA
MOVING NW AT 15W. A 1100 UTC WINDSAT PASS WENT OVER THIS WAVE
AND DELINEATED THE WINDSHIFTS VERY WELL. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
60W-67W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 20N0W TO 21N6W TO
THE COAST AT 11N15W TO 7N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 9N30W TO
5N50W TO 10N61W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
12W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF
NEAR 25N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 28N85W.
A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 83W-86W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND N FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N91W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND BE
REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE E GULF...AND FLORIDA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE BORDER OF COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 82W-85W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NEAR JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 58W-65W. 15-25
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY TO THE TROPICAL WAVES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N45W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W
FROM THE HIGH TO THE N BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. EXPECT...MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
73W...AND OVER THE TROPICS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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