[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N25W 13N26W 9N26W
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS AT LEAST 360 NM
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N54W 9N55W 5N56W IN
NORTH CENTRAL SURINAME. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N66W...ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...
TO 15N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...POSSIBLY SHEARING APART SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THAT AREA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
20N...CURVING TO 21N5W 16N12W 10N17W 10N23W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 9N27W TO 6N38W AND 4N46W. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W
AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N
TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 56W
AND 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GULF OF MEXICO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N86W. A
SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER...THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THAT CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N90W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 82W AND
86W IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN MEXICO BETWEEN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WESTERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING
ACROSS FLORIDA...AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO
THE WEST OF 77W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DISSIPATED ALREADY. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS COMBINED WITH THE 1010
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BETWEEN 77W IN THE BAHAMAS AND 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO A COMPARATIVELY
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N74W JUST OFF
THE HAITI COAST...TO 14N76W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 10N84W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 76W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND COASTAL NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA...NEAR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N66W...ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...TO 15N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...POSSIBLY SHEARING APART SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THAT AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 32N49W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N53W TO 22N66W...AND THEN BEYOND
NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 26N20W
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N35W...TO 10N50W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N45W TO 31N59W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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