[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GULF OF MEXICO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N86W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N...THROUGH THE 25N86W LOW
CENTER...INTO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA TO 20N...AND IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
EAST OF 87W...IN WESTERN FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 28N...AND IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND THE FLORIDA COAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OF
WEATHER. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N23W 13N25W 9N25W
MOVING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N53W 8N54W 5N55W
IN NORTHEASTERN SURINAME. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N65W...ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...
TO 15N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...POSSIBLY SHEARING APART
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THAT AREA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
20N...CURVING TO 21N4W 15N13W 10N17W 10N23W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N28W TO 7N44W AND 8N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 31W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N89W. A LOT OF ATTENTION
IS BEING PAID TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
25N86W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DISSIPATED ALREADY. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS COMBINED WITH THE
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 78W IN THE BAHAMAS AND 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO A COMPARATIVELY
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N74W JUST OFF
THE HAITI COAST...TO 14N76W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 10N84W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
21N65W...ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W
AND 63W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...POSSIBLY SHEARING APART SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THAT AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 32N48W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N53W TO 22N66W...AND THEN BEYOND
NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 26N20W
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N35W...TO 10N50W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N45W TO BERMUDA TO 32N76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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