[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 072351
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.   ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI


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