[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060727 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2011

AMENDED/UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N47W 15N50W 10N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W.

A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM 12N57W TO 9N62W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE WATERS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND IN
THE NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA COASTAL PLAINS FROM 10N TO 11N
WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 63W. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 20N47W 10N51W
TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM
22N83W IN WESTERN CUBA TO 15N85W IN EASTERN HONDURAS. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
NORTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND SURROUNDING
AND REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
23N...CURVING TO 22N7W 20N14W 12N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
12N21W TO 8N30W 5N45W 9N56W AND 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 10N
26W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES
THE WAVE MAY BE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 26N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN
108W AND 110W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 31N77W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 22N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N53W AND REACHES 15N64W IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS ALONG 83W/85W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
NORTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND SURROUNDING
AND REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAVE
RANGED FROM 6.92 INCHES AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LAS
AMERICAS TO 7.41 INCHES IN SANTO DOMINGO...FROM 6.75 INCHES IN
YAMASA TO 7.2 INCHES IN POLO BARAHONA...AND FROM 7.75 INCHES
IN BOTANICO GARDEN TO 8.15 INCHES IN VICTORIA. A TROPICAL WAVE
BEGAN MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON 02 JULY. THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE WAVE SEPARATED FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE AND IT CONTINUED
ON ITS OWN NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY FROM HISPANIOLA TOWARD ITS
PRESENT POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUED ON ITS OWN TRAJECTORY TO ITS PRESENT
LOCATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
TO 23N76W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W..AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N48W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 27N53W TO 15N64W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
37N38W TO 33N58W THROUGH 31N77W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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