[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N41W 14N43W 9N44W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 22N81W ALONG THE
COAST OF CUBA TO 18N83W AND 14N83W ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TO
BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
22N...CURVING TO 24N5W 17N14W 11N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
11N19W TO 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W.
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST
OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD
A BIT AND WEAKENED. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS REMAIN FROM
3S TO 6N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A 27N88W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. ONE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 27N105W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 93W.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHES FROM
WESTERN CUBA...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE WEST
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TO
BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS THAT COVER PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 67W AND THE JAMAICAN CHANNEL...
MOSTLY AROUND AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PARTS OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD CHANNEL AND 80W. A 26N73W 21N76W SURFACE
TROUGH CUTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N65W.
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER PARTS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 67W AND
THE JAMAICAN CHANNEL...MOSTLY AROUND AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PARTS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N44W 25N47W...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 25N47W 22N52W...AND WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
22N52W 12N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
22N BETWEEN 44W AND 58W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 66W...AND TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 66W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT





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