[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N39W 13N42W 8N43W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 22N81W OF THE COAST
OF CUBA TO 18N82W AND 14N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 12N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 82W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
17N...CURVING TO 23N5W 18N14W 11N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
11N20W TO 7N30W 6N38W 9N46W 8N58W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2S TO 4N IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ONE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 27N104W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
AREA FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHES FROM
WESTERN CUBA...JUST PAST THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 12N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W...MOSTLY
AROUND AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PARTS OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD CHANNEL AND 80W. A 26N73W 21N75W SURFACE
TROUGH CUTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N65W.
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER PARTS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W
AND 72W...MOSTLY AROUND AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PARTS OF
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N44W 25N47W...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 25N47W 22N52W...AND WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
22N52W 12N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N48W 26N49W 22N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 14N58W 23N52W 33W45W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 28N48W 22N50W
SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT




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