[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO
10N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND AS A BROAD INVERTED V STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE IS PRECEDING A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT IS
LIMITED TO THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 18N77W
TO 11N79W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...
SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE
EAST TROPICAL ATLC FROM 11N16W TO 10N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS
FROM 10N22W CONTINUING W ALONG 11N32W 8N40W 7N50W 6N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 37W. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE AN UPPER
LOW ROTATING N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N87W. THESE
FEATURES SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FORM 27N87W TO
22N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80/100 NM
EAST OF THE AXIS...AS WELL AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFF
THE SW FLORIDA COAST S OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDED BY A WEAK 1015
MB HIGH ANCHORED IN THE FAR NW BASIN NEAR 29N93W. THE HIGH IS
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN CONTINUES TO BE GREATLY
DISTURB BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN...
AND A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE WAVE SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER A
GREAT PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN
68W-75W. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST ATLC
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 30N70W TO 28N73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN HAS DETACHED AND CAN BE TRACKED ON WATER VAPOR AS A
VORT-MAX/SHORTWAVE NEAR 22N72W. THIS FEATURE IS ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF TURKS AND CAICOS FROM 24N68W TO 20N71W.
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING SIMILAR CONVECTION INTO THE ATLC S OF
25N BETWEEN 62W-75W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS NEAR 35N48W AND 35N28W. THIS BROAD
SYSTEM IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD RIDGE
SPINNING NEAR 26N50W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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