[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM
20N23W TO 10N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE IS PRECEDING A MOISTURE SURGE COMING OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM AROUND 9N TO 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 20N68W
TO 11N73W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SPLIT AND TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...
SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S
OF 20N W OF 67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ANALYZED FROM
20N92W TO 16N93W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF 20N E OF 95W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST FROM 19N16W
TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS FROM 8N31W CONTINUING W ALONG
7N40W 8N50W 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 24W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NE CORNER OF
THE GULF. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ROTATING
N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N87W. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WEST ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N81W TO
25N83W. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE
REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WEST ATLC...LEAVING ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE FAR SW COAST OF
FLORIDA S OF 26N. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH STRONG CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER PROVIDED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE FAR NW BASIN NEAR 28N93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE GREATLY
DISRUPTED BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN...AS WELL AS THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW
BASIN FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA. FOR
MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE WAVE SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER A GREAT
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N W OF 67W. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WEST ATLC
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 30N76W TO 26N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING SIMILAR CONVECTION INTO THE ATLC S OF 23N
BETWEEN 60W-72W. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL SPLIT AND TRACK NW ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
AND 1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 36N49W AND 35N32W RESPECTIVELY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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