[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 18N67W TO 10N68W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED A MARKED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V
STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 22N BETWEEN 62W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 21N85W TO 14N86W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 80W S OF 20N.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA INTO THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC 24 HOURS AGO. THE WAVE AXIS IS CURRENTLY
ANALYZED FROM 20N18W TO 10N20W. THIS WAVE PRECEDES A MOISTURE
SURGE STILL OVER WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA S OF 14N...ALSO MENTIONED IN
THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSION.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE
EAST TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W TO 7N26W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 6N30W TO 4N40W INTO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100/150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 34W AND W OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOWN
TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED ACROSS THE WEST ATLC INTO THE GULF ALONG A 1013 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W TO 28N87W. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LEAVING
A WEAK AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN IS INTRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF 96W ASSOCIATED TO THE
REMNANT BANDS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NW BASINS...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW
BASIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE TROPICAL WAVES...SEE
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS NOT LIMITED TO
INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE ONLY REGION UNDER FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 16N BETWEEN
74W-81W. WITHIN THIS AREA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING RIGHT OVER JAMAICA. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS
WRAPPED UP IN DRY AIR ALOFT HINDERING CONVECTION WITHIN AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW
ATLC INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N75W...ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 27N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SPREADING
SIMILAR CONVECTION INTO THE ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER
ANTILLES S OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-72W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 28N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net