[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W/63W S OF 18N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE
SURGE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 59W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W S OF 21N MOVING
W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IS ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 80W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 24N00W TO 20N16W
AND CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 10N21W 7N30W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 7N30W TO 6N40W TO 8N51W TO 7N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 12W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ARLENE IS NOW A REMNANT 1003 MB LOW OVER MEXICO AT 20N100W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SW MEXICO FROM 14N-21N
BETWEEN 100W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 98W-101W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 94W-96W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 28N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
27N-29N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WHILE THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.
EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA
FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 71W-76W. ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA.
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
IN VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
33N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER E FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 68W-72W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 50W-56W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE N OF 20N E OF 70W TO W AFRICA. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO
BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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