[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N9W CONTINUING WSW ALONG 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 32W TO
3S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IN SW
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING
THE CARIBBEAN AND FAR ERN CONUS...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN
MOSTLY FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
BASIN-WIDE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N79W IS HELPING CONTRIBUTE TO THE FAIR
WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF FOG ALONG THE
GULF COASTLINE BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 86W AND THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR 97W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SRN MEXICO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF AROUND
1200-1800 UTC WITH STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND IT WHICH WILL REACH
GALE FORCE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25
KTS IS ACROSS THE AREA REACHING 30 KTS IN THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND W
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE
STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND INTO THE W ATLC
MONDAY ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 80W
WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR 29N79W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE ALONG 68W IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY SINK S INTO THE AREA SOON. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA ALONG 25N72W TO
19N75W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
AROUND A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 33N28W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
HOWEVER...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 27N26W TO 13N40W IS
PLACING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE ATLC AND
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 27W-51W...AS
WELL AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. DUE TO THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE N AND LOWER
PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ...ENE TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KTS IS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE E ATLC REACHING 25 KTS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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