[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
06N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N14W TO 05N23W TO 02N33W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 22W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N98W TO 26N100W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1019 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 29N91W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO
23N93W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST
NEAR 18N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS
EAST FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 29N AND IS
PROVIDING A SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N TO THE GULF COAST...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. WEST OF THE
FRONT...STRONG N-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 08N66W NW TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY
OF 17N80W. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALSO...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 77W-83W...AND FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 83W-88W...
WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS EVENING LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM
38N63W TO 32N68W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW ALONG 30N69W TO 28N75W TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASSES
DEPICTED STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT EAST OF
72W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N45W TO 28N52W
AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N61W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AS THE ENTIRE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 50W AND
INFLUENCE LOCATED BETWEEN 42W AND 58W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED TO THE SE OF THE FRONT FROM 32N40W TO 30N43W TO 23N49W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N36W AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N33W TO 13N40W. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
SUPPORTED BY STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE LOCATED
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N-24N BETWEEN 16W-32W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 24N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 37N18W TO 25N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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