[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251819 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2011

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE VISIBILITY REPORTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N14W TO
07N20W TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...CORRECTED
A WARM FRONT STRADDLES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF FROM
NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO 29N88W TO A WEAK 1020 MB LOW
AT 27.5N93W. A COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDS FROM THE LOW S TO 23N93W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY S TO INLAND MEXICO AT VERACRUZ.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO W OF THE LOW AND
COLD/STATIONARY FRONTS FRONTS...WHILE PATCHES OF BROKEN TO
BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHT PATCHES OF FOG WITH A FEW VISIBILITY REPORTS OF LESS THAN
5 NM JUST SE AND S OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA ARE ALONG AND N OF
THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXTENSIVE SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO OVER EASTERN TEXAS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NW TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS MOISTURE FEED THEN TURNS MORE TO THE E AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SE U.S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE LITTLE TO THE E THROUGH MON...THEN
BEGIN TO ADVANCE E LATE MON AND TUE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT CATCHES UP WITH IT...ABSORBING IT EARLY ON TUE. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE GULF TUE. PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF SECTIONS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO TRACK NWD TO ACROSS THE SE U.S.
WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG HIGH PRES SURGING SWD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONTS IS RESULTING IN STRONG TO MODERATE
NW-N WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TO N OF THE
GULF OVER LOUISIANA ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING A RATHER
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE TO
THE MOIST DEEP ELY FLOW ARE NOTED MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD FROM
12N TO 17N TO INLAND HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND ALSO N OF 19N
W OF 80W.

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE WEAK TSTMS ARE S OF 12N W OF 79W. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 29N70W...THEN BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 22N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
21N42W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
COMBINATION WITH A VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM BRANCH TO ITS S
CONTINUES TO INDUCE EXTENSIVE BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
10N TO ABOUT 25N AND BETWEEN 24N AND 41W. A HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 32N34W TO 20N32W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REACH FROM 32N45W TO NEAR 27N60W IN ABOUT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE








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