[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N11W TO
03N25W TO 06N45W TO 05N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 22W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 19N40W TO 07N45W
LARGELY AS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
20N45W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 09N-20N BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N95W. A WARM FROM EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE
LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM 21N-25N W OF FRONT.
15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE
WARM SECTION E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND S OF THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE TO WEAKEN TO 30 KT IN 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS MOVING W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO 29N75W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1024 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 34N45W TO 25N47W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEARBY AT 25N43W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 37W-40W. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF
SPAIN AT 41N20W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 20N32W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E
WITH SHOWERS WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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