[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N12W TO 4N23W TO 5N37W TO 2N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 19W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO ALONG 31N87W 24N93W 20N97W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. 10-15 KT N WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS ABOUT TO LOSE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT AGAIN AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PRESENTLY COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT N OF 26N TO MOVE E WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PART REMAINS STATIONARY. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE MOSTLY VOID
OF PRECIPITATION WHILE AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
73W-78W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA
RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
N NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 83W-87W. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 86W-89W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N59W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N40W TO
24N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 37W-43W. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF SPAIN AT
38N19W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 25N20W. EXPECT
THE TROUGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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