[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
9N13W TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO 5N35W TO 5N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 7W-15W... AND
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 27N-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO LOUISIANA AT 29N90W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER S TEXAS.
FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-89W. ELSEWHERE...S OF THE WARM
FRONT 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST UNTIL 1200 UTC...
THEN START TO MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS A COLD FRONT THEREAFTER
DUE TO A SECONDARY PUSH WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ALSO EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
71W-79W. 20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA
RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND
NICARAGUA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 81W-85W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE NW CARIBBEAN
W OF 80W...AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N63W. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N37W
TO 23N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
E OF THE FRONT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 55W-60W MOVING W. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
W OF SPAIN AT 38N15W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO
22N20W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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