[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA EXTENDING ACROSS
THE COUNTRIES OF GHANA...COTE D' IVOIRE...AND LIBERIA. THE ITCZ
ENTERS THE ATLC WATERS ACROSS THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W...CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 5N30W 6N40W TO 3N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF THIS
EVENING...INFLUENCED BY A 1029 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WRN MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE THE BENIGN WEATHER...A
GREAT PORTION OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS WRN
CUBA AND EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 22N82W 19N85W
16N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 230 NM NE OF
PUERTO RICO. A WEAK NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SW CARIBBEAN PUSHING A VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT TO MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT THE SE AND
S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE ERN
TROPICAL ATLC IS PROVIDING MID-UPPER MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION.
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE MOIST SECTOR WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16N51W TO 14N72W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ACROSS 32N68W TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
INTO WRN CUBA ALONG 22N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE BOUNDARY TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
THE REMAINDER WRN HALF OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N57W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS EXTENDS
SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPOSED BY TWO UPPER LOWS CENTERED ABOUT 230 NM NE OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 28N45W. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REFLECTS AT SURFACE AS A LENGTHY TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 32N45W
24N42W 20N52W 15N60W. MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200-250 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN BASIN...
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY AN AZORES 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 10N30W
AND A 1030 MB HIGH WEST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N14W CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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