[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS A PORTION OF AFRICA WITH THE
ITCZ AXIS ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING
ALONG 3N26W TO 8N46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 215 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
31N-46W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 31W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF AT 06/0900 UTC FROM A 1015 MB LOW
JUST N OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO 26N92W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN TUXPAN AND VERACRUZ
CONTINUING NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE
AREA W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO RETREAT
EASTWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE E GULF AND ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N
BETWEEN 80W-85W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N86W TO OVER THE
N GULF COAST NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR
MIAMI INTO THE W ATLC. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING AND THEN MOVE SE OF
THE AREA LATE WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 13N73W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W. VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE W OF A LINE FROM THE N
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N72W WHILE MOIST
TROPICAL AIR IS TO THE E OF THIS LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE MOIST SECTOR OF THE CARIBBEAN
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION OVER PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 9N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND E
PANAMA. RAINS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WED
NIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS
MIAMI FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N72W COVERING THE W
ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC S OF 30N
W OF 67W AND N OF 30N W OF 55W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N76W TO SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 29N61W THROUGH AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER
LOW NEAR 24N65W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N66W ALONG
24N66W TO 20N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 62W-66W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W GIVING
THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 50W FROM 15N-30N. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 27N51W
20N55W TO OVER SAINT LUCIA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN
46W-58W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 42W-60W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH
OVER THE AZORES. SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SE THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS
COAST LATE WED THEN WILL EXTEND FROM W OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
CUBA THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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