[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N12W TO
05N19W TO 06N36W TO 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N78W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LARGE AND STRETCHED 1033 SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED WELL NE OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
41N62W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 90W. MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF FROM PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS TO 24N98W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25
KT ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEK AND CLEAR EAST OF THE GULF REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
NEAR 19N68W TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA
NEAR 09N73W. WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 68W WITH FAIR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...NE WINDS ARE NOTED ON SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND
WESTERN PANAMA. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 79W-87W. FARTHER
EAST...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PROVIDING AMPLE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 11N67W TO 18N62W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS EASTWARD
SO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN...WHILE CONTINUED INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 32N58W TO 19N69W AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 17N60W TO 28N63W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST THE SURFACE FEATURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN
52W-63W. TO THE WEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...
NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS CONFINED N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N31W BUT HAS MINIMAL IMPACT AT THE
SURFACE AS A RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W...CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE
EASTERN ATLC E OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net