[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA ENDING OVER
IVORY COAST NEAR 6N4W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG
7N20W 8N40W 7N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 15W-23W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY NEAR
37N85W. 10-15 KT EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAS MOSTLY ENDED. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND SURFACE EASTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N75W TO W
PANAMA AT 9N82W. STRONGER WINDS AND RESIDUAL BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...N NICARAGUA...JAMAICA...AND E
CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W TO INCLUDE
COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 65W-74W.
ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 11N63W 16N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...FOR THE
SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT FOR
THE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND SE CARIBBEAN...TO
PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N69W TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1006 MB LOW IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR
35N60W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N58W TO 24N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. NEAR
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT. FURTHER S...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 57W-60W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE E
ATLANTIC...A 1016 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N26W. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW ALONG 30N24W 27N30W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT...FOR THE COLD
FRONT ALONG 58W TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
EXPECT THE OTHER TWO FRONTS TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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