[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA AT 31/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.6N
42.6W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 1250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.
OTHER PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE COVERS THE AREAS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHING THE BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
EAST OF 90W...THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N...SPILLING INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS CURRENTLY ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ANYONE WITH ANY INTEREST ALONG THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED FROM AFRICA ALONG
18W/19W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N20W 5N24W
AND 5N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 33N71W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 31N77W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM
31N77W THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA IN THE U.S.A...TO A SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA REACHING
THE GEORGIA BORDER. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...TO A MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N106W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 19N93W TO 24N97W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS
SPREADING PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W TO
11N81W...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 9N BETWEEN 70W AND
75W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF
11N TO THE WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 79W FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TOWARD PANAMA TO THE WEST
OF 80W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE CUBA COAST NEAR 20N78W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN CENTRAL HAITI IS IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 83W...MAY JUST BE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ON THE FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM KATIA IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N71W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 31N77W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM
31N77W THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA IN THE U.S.A...TO A SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA REACHING THE GEORGIA BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N53W
TO 28N56W TO 25N55W 20N60W AND REACHING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM
20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE
NORTH OF MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 31N26W TO 34N34W. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N37W 28N32W 28N25W 29N20W BEYOND 32N13W. A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N28W. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE
EAST OF 37W...ABOUT 660 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF T.S. KATIA.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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