[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

T.D. TWELVE IS CENTERED NEAR 11.0N 30.0W AS OF 30/0300 UTC...OR
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
30W-37W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA AND BARELY ENTERS
THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W
TO 18N20W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO T.D.
TWELVE HAS DISRUPTED THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH...ONLY ALLOWING
A SMALL PORTION OF ITCZ TO REDEVELOPED FROM 11N43W TO 9N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 49W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT VOID OF
PRECIPITATION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N83W TO 28N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N90W 16N90W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N
AND W OF 88W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO DRIFT W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...W OF
70W. THE E CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 15-25 TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS T.D. TWELVE IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE TWO PROMINENT SURFACE TROUGHS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ONE EXTENDS FROM 23N39W TO
16N43W AND IS THE REMNANTS OF T.D.10. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOW W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
45W-47W. A SECOND TROUGH IS FROM 31N40W TO 26N45W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N33W. THE TRADEWINDS ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net