[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

T.S. JOSE WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT 1500 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF JOSE ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IMPINGING UPON IT FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

T.D. TWELVE IS CENTERED NEAR 9.8N 27.5W AS OF 29/1500 UTC...OR
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN
22W-33W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA AND BARELY ENTERS
THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W
TO 18N18W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO T.D.
TWELVE HAS DISRUPTED THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH...ONLY ALLOWING
A SMALL PORTION OF ITCZ TO REDEVELOPED FROM 12N47W TO 11N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS A
SHARP DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT OVER THE GULF...EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N82W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
22N97W. THIS LINE DIVIDES A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS N OF THE AXIS.
THIS REGION IS IS DOMINATED MOSTLY BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE ESE CONUS AND A UPPER OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE W OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. AT SURFACE...AN INACTIVE STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED ALONG 30N84W 27N88W 29N94W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SSW SURFACE 10-20 KT FLOW IS PROVIDING THE
MOISTURE FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS CONCENTRATED S
OF 27N E OF 89W...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR VERACRUZ.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N
W OF 95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL START MOVING WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-85W. THIS HIGH MOISTURE
IS HELPING SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
WITH THE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE NW BASIN
MOVING THE MOISTURE ALOFT TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ACTIVITY
IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W IS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOW TOP
SHOWERS MOVING ALONG WITH THE ELY TRADEWIND SURFACE FLOW OF
10-15 KT. EXPECT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER WWD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN PUSHING THE HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE WEST
BASIN AND S-SE GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUPPORTS A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HOLDS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
GENERATING A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 76W-79W. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FLOW IS BRINGING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO
THE FAR WEST ATLC SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST S OF DAYTONA
BEACH. SIMILAR CONVECTION CONVERGING A WIDER AREA IS FOUND N OF
24N BETWEEN 60W-68W. FARTHER E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N38W 28N45W 29N51W...SUPPORTED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N37W TO 17N40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE
AXIS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 33W-37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. T.D.TWELVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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