[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

T.S. IRENE IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NHC HAS ISSUED
ITS LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY. AS OF 29/0300 UTC IRENE IS CENTERED
NEAR 45.3N 71.3W...OR ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF BERLIN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...OR ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF QUEBEC CITY QUEBEC
MOVING NNE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LAST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE LAST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. IRENE CONTINUES TO BECOME ELONGATED AND HAS LOST ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS A
THREAT FOR MANY OF THE AREAS AFFECTED BY IRENE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND. EVEN AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...RIVER LEVELS
CAN STILL RISE RESULTING IN FLOODING.

T.S. JOSE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.0N 65.5W AS OF 29/0300 UTC MOVING
N AT 18 KT...OR ABOUT 165 NM NNW OF BERMUDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE IS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. CURRENTLY A
SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM
32N-34N BETWEEN 65W-68W DUE TO SHEAR.

A 1009 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N24W
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
24W-30W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES W AT 15 KT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA AT 18N16W
TO 12N20W 9N24W 10N28W. THE ITCZ HAS REDEVELOPED FROM 10N47W TO
VENEZUELA AT 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 17W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT VOID OF CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF OF
MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE GULF TO S LOUISIANA
ALONG 31N84W 28N87W 29N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N88W 16N91W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND W OF 88W.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CUBA...THE S GULF...AND
S MEXICO...S OF 24N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E TO N
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO DRIFT W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...W OF
70W. THE E CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SWLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 62W-71W.
FARTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SKIRTS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N38W 28N45W 29N51W. IT IS SUPPORTED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE ERN ATLC. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 22N36W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE CENTER FROM 26N32W TO 17N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A MORE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N24W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR
MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR WRN
ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SE OF JOSE NEAR 28N62W
PRODUCING A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE STORM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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