[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

T.S. IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NNE TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS OF
29/0000 UTC IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 44.1N 72.1W...OR ABOUT 20 NM
S OF ST. JOHNSBURY VERMONT MOVING NNE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IRENE CONTINUES TO
BECOME ELONGATED AND IS LOOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEW
ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS A THREAT FOR MANY OF THE AREAS
AFFECTED BY IRENE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. EVEN AFTER THE
STORM HAS PASSED...RIVER LEVELS CAN STILL RISE RESULTING IN
FLOODING.

T.S. JOSE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.0N 65.7W AS OF 29/0000 UTC MOVING
N AT 17 KT...OR ABOUT 110 NM NNW OF BERMUDA . ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE IS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. CURRENTLY A
SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER
FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 66W-68W. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS
SHEARED TO THE S OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 63W-73W.

A 1009 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N23W
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
24W-31W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES W AT 10-15 KT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
13N16W ALONG 11N23W 12N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS JUST OFF THE COAST FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 13W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER SRN GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO ERN
TEXAS ALONG 28N89W 30N94W. WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE
BASIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY S OF A LINE FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 23N98W. STRONGER ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N89W TO 17N90W. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT WEAKENS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT WWD WHICH WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES CURRENTLY OVER
THE CARIBBEAN ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH MOISTURE IS HELPING
SUPPORT MANY AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF
CUBA...HAITI...FAR NRN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NRN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND SRN
GUATEMALA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN OVER WATER W OF 72W...WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THE
ACTIVITY OVER NRN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED S OF ERN HISPANIOLA. NELY
FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM BELIZE TO WRN CUBA. THE FAR ERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER DRY AIR
ALOFT AND ELY TRADEWIND SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT THE
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO FILTER WWD PUSHING THE
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SWLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC AROUND THE BROAD
CIRCULATION OF T.S. IRENE WHICH IS WELL N OF THE AREA. T.S. JOSE
IS ALSO CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 63W-73W. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED SE OF JOSE NEAR 28N62W PRODUCING A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR OVER THE STORM. TO THE N...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED NEAR 40N58W. FARTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SKIRTS
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N39W 29N44W
29N50W. IT IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ERN ATLC. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N37W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTER FROM 26N33W
TO 16N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 30W-37W. A
MORE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 11N23W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
19N50W...WITH A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 20N13W.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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