[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

T.S. IRENE IS INLAND MOVING ACROSS THE NE STATES. AT 28/1500 UTC
IRENE WAS 41.4N 73.7W OR ABOUT 10 MI W OF DANBURY CONNECTICUT
MOVING N-NE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND ISLAND SOUND EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND MASSACHUSETTS. IRENE
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...FROM THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

T.S. JOSE DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING AT 1200 UTC. JOSE IS
NEAR 32.3N 65.7W OR ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT
15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FORM 27N-32
BETWEEN 65W-70W. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ABATE BY LATE THIS EVENING.
RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.

A 1011 MB LOW IS SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N20W
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N E OF 30W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W EXTENDING
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW NEAR 10N20W TO 11N25W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-13N E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS DIPS S OVER THE NE GULF
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N84W TO 28N87W BECOMING STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER EASTERN
TEXAS ALONG 30N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30/45 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BEHIND THE FRONT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE SW GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG THE FAR N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM FROM THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ITS AXIS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH PLENTY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN
72W-81W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-77W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE W
ATLC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING TRADEWIND FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS ON THE WRN ATLC THIS AFTERNOON IS T.S. JOSE...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. HOWEVER
...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND AND WILL ENTER
THE FAR W ATLC WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 19N37W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N29W 19N37W
TO 16N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO
THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 30W-35W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LINGERING LARGE SWELLS
OVER THE N/CENTRAL AND W ATLC GENERATED FROM IRENE WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT. THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF IRENE. THEN...IT WILL SLOWLY
RETREAT AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION
MONDAY NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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