[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 281458
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRENE IS MOVING
JUST TO THE WEST OF CONNECTICUT.  THE FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED
TO NEAR 020/23...AND SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO 50 KT.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER LAND TODAY.  IN 12 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IRENE
BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE SO THE FORECAST SHOWS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THAT TIME.

SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER HIGH-RISE
STRUCTURES AND AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 41.4N  73.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 44.5N  71.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  29/1200Z 49.0N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/0000Z 53.0N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1200Z 56.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1200Z 60.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1200Z 62.0N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1200Z 63.0N  27.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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