[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 32.1N 77.2W AT 27/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 155 NM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180
NM OF THE CENTER AS DEPICTED IN THE WSR-88D RADARS AND INFRARED
IMAGERY.  HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.  IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND WILL BE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 34.3W AT 26/2100
UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W TO 17N20W. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO
WELL-DEFINED ITCZ IN THE ATLANTIC.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
HAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.  E OF 85W AND N OF 25N...NW SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE IRENE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK
TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND
TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF
COAST.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WINDS OR CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO
HURRICANE IRENE HAS WEAKENED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WEST OF
80W.  EAST OF 80W...WEAK E-SE TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...NORTHERN
COLUMBIA...AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON HEATING.  THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN...
THOUGH...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.  LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WINDS OR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY.  NUMEROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SEEN OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS THE OUTFLOW FROM IRENE IS ADVECTING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER THIS REGION IN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE
AS IT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CAROLINAS.  OF SECONDARY INTEREST IS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS.  THREE SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED:  ONE EXTENDING FROM 11N60W TO 14N55W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...ONE EXTENDING FROM 23N53W TO 27N55W WITHIN SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND ONE EXTENDING FROM 25N59W TO 29N61W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN BETWEEN 10-14N AND 45-48W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH IS GENERATING E-NE TRADEWINDS GENERALLY
10-15 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
23N59W...WHICH IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH AT 28N72W AND
18N45W.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LANDSEA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net