[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KPHI 262159
HLSPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
CHANGING REMAINING WATCHES TO WARNINGS.
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THIS
STATEMENT ALSO APPLIES TO COASTAL AREAS FROM RARITAN BAY AND SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE INCLUDING ALL OF THE
DELAWARE BAY.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
MIDDLESEX.

A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...NEW
CASTLE...KENT...INLAND SUSSEX...DELAWARE BEACHES...TALBOT...
CAROLINE...WESTERN MONMOUTH...EASTERN MONMOUTH...SALEM...
GLOUCESTER...CAMDEN...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...OCEAN...
CUMBERLAND...ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...
COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...
DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...MORRIS...HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES...MERCER...CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND
BUCKS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PHILADELPHIA QUAD STATE
REGION. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.7N...LONGITUDE 77.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ...OR ABOUT 520 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DOVER DE. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT
14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS SUNDAY.
THE STORM WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RESULTING IN DANGEROUS FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS...AND
COASTAL FLOODING.

OVERALL...6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS SEEING OVER 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HEAVY AND POSSIBLY
RECORD SETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY TIME
FRAME WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING. THE RARITAN AND SCHUYLKILL RIVERS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACT RATHER QUICKLY AND ALSO ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLOODING. THE DELAWARE...SUSQUEHANNA...RANCOCAS AND PASSAIC
RIVERS REACT MORE SLOWLY...BUT THEY ALSO ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING FROM THIS RAINFALL EVENT.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
AS THIS HURRICANE IS A LARGE STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS
SITUATION...THEREFORE EVERYONE IS URGED COMPLETE THEIR
PREPARATIONS TODAY.

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CAPE MAY COUNTY...NEW
JERSEY.

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LONG BEACH ISLAND.

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COUNTY...NEW JERSEY.

VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERKELEY TOWNSHIP IN OCEAN
COUNTY...NEW JERSEY.

IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF
LOCAL OFFICIALS WHEN EVACUATIONS ARE ORDERED.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION
OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR
FLOODING. PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LAST
LONG PERIODS OF TIME... AND MAKE SURE THAT YOUR VEHICLE HAS A FULL
TANK OF FUEL.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS, DOCKS AND MARINAS, URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT, MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION,
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY AROUND 930 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NJZ008>010-272200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
559 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

$$

DEZ001>004-MDZ019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071-272200-
/O.CON.KPHI.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
559 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PROBABILITIES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 9 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 78 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 90 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. POORLY ANCHORED MOBILE HOMES MAY BE
DESTROYED...ALONG WITH THOSE OF OLD OR POOR CONSTRUCTION. SOME
WELL ANCHORED MOBILE HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WALLS...AND WINDOWS...AND COULD BECOME UNINHABITABLE.
SOME HOMES OF FRAME CONSTRUCTION WILL SUSTAIN PARTIAL WALL AND
ROOF FAILURE...AND POSSIBLY BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. LOOSE OUTDOOR
ITEMS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND
POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE POWER OUTAGES WITH
SOME DOWNED POWER POLES. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES
WILL SNAP. SOME TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
GROUND IS SATURATED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST...A
STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE AND DELAWARE BAY SHORE. A 1 TO 3 FEET SURGE IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
SEVERE BEACH EROSION ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND DELAWARE BAY SHORE.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE EVERYONE IS URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

$$

MDZ008-012-015-NJZ015-PAZ067>069-272200-
/O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
559 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PROBABILITIES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 62 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MANY MOBILE HOMES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE CANOPIES...AWNINGS...OR CARPORTS.
POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY SUSTAIN MINOR WALL DAMAGE AND
PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE MINOR ROOF AND SIDING
DAMAGE. SOME LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BE TOSSED AROUND AND MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. A FEW POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. SOME LARGE BRANCHES OF
HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND
SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS
POSSIBLE. THIS HOWEVER WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECISE SIZE...
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

$$

NJZ012-272200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MIDDLESEX-
559 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

$$

ANZ430-431-450>455-272200-
/O.CON.KPHI.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
559 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PROBABILITIES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 11 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 80 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST FOR MANY HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 55 TO 75 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE ARRIVES...WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING AT LEAST 20 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 5 TO
10 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY WITH UP TO 15 FEET AT THE ENTRANCE.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR IN RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THIS POTENTIAL WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS CENTER.

$$

ANZ470-272200-
/O.CON.KPHI.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
559 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PROBABILITIES.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 6 TO
14 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS 71 TO 81 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND
SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST FOR MANY HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 55 TO 75 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE ARRIVES...WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING AROUND 25 FEET.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR IN RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THIS POTENTIAL WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS CENTER.

$$
MANNING

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