[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 262049
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE
FLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID
REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF
50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF
THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT
225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS
ERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND.

IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP
THE EAST COAST...AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES
LONG ISLAND...MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS
AREA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
CYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 31.7N  77.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 33.4N  77.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 35.5N  76.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 36H  28/0600Z 38.2N  75.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  28/1800Z 41.8N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1800Z 50.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  30/1800Z 56.5N  51.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1800Z 58.0N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

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