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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE WEAKENS A LITTLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARRIVING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.  A
COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT FOLLY ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURE BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.  STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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