[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KPHI 252315
HLSPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
715 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LOCAL INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC
INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE... AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THIS
STATEMENT ALSO APPLIES TO COASTAL AREAS FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY
TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE INCLUDING ALL OF THE DELAWARE BAY.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...NEW
CASTLE...KENT...INLAND SUSSEX...DELAWARE BEACHES...WESTERN
MONMOUTH...EASTERN MONMOUTH...SALEM...CAMDEN...NORTHWESTERN
BURLINGTON...OCEAN...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...ATLANTIC...CAPE
MAY...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL
OCEAN... SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES...TALBOT...CAROLINE...MERCER...
CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY
FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.0N...LONGITUDE 77.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 840 MILES SOUTH
OF DOVER DE...OR ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE MAY NJ. STORM
MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 115
MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EARLY THIS EVENING MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH TAKING THE STORM UP THE EAST COAST... AND
AFFECTING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND COASTAL FLOODING. 6-12 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. WHEN
MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.

EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED IN CAPE MAY COUNTY NEW JERSEY.
IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS
WHEN EVACUATIONS ARE ORDERED.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

DEZ001>004-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071-260600-
/O.CON.KPHI.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
715 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WINDS...STORM SURGE...FLOODING AND PROBABILISTIC
INFORMATION.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IRENE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP
TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST... RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HEAVY AND
POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY
TIME FRAME MAY RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS NEW JERSEY...EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

...RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 7 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 62 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ015-PAZ067>069-260600-
/O.CON.KPHI.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MERCER-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
715 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WINDS...STORM SURGE...FLOODING AND PROBABILISTIC
INFORMATION.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IRENE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP
TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST... RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION UP TO 1 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HEAVY AND
POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY
TIME FRAME MAY RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS NEW JERSEY...EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 54 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD
START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

ANZ430-431-450>455-260600-
/O.CON.KPHI.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
715 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 9 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 64 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

ANZ470-260600-
/O.CON.KPHI.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
715 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 4 TO
10 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 64 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONSET
OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


$$
MANNING




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