[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 77.2W AT 25/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NASSAU...OR ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE N
BAHAMAS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 72W-80W. HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS A
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 290 NM. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 13.3N 31.8W AT 25/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. TEN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TOMORROW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W TO 17N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS W OF
T.D.TEN FROM 8N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 7N58W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 15W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO E TEXAS. HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED OVER THE N
BAHAMAS AND IS PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
S FLORIDA S OF VERO BEACH. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. WINDS OVER THE E GULF ARE 10-15 KT WHILE
THE W GULF W OF 90W HAS VARIABLE 5 KT WINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS PRODUCING NE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N85W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
EXPECT CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TO HAVE FEEDER BAND
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS...AND HIGH SURF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO IRENE. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA AND HAITI DUE TO IRENE.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E
OF 80W ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND S OF HISPANIOLA.
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF
COSTA RICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IRENE IS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH A SMALL EYE MOVING NNW
OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N41W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH TO 30N60W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A 1013 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 45W-47W. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N E OF 25W NE OF T.D. TEN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N54W
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
50W-55W. EXPECT IRENE TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR
30N AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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