[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 242035 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 74.3W AT 24/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 250
MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105
KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 71W-76W TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 NM FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 NM FROM THE CENTER. IRENE IS A MAJOR HURRICANE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
13N25W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 24W-30W. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 9-13 KT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE
1008 MB LOW AT 13N25W TO NEAR 10N28W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N38W TO 12N45W TO 13N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 24W-30W...AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 28W-33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER
W NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 48W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
30N. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY LIGHT AT 5-10 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIMILAR SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF RADAR RANGE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 23N. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL HAVE FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N95W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS PRODUCING
LINGERING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. SEE
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 77W-83W
DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-68W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IRENE IS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH A SMALL WELL DEFINED
EYE MOVING NW OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A 1029 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N60W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 23N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER
FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 41W-44W. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-30N E OF 30W
HAMPERING THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N25W.

 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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