[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.9N  71.5W AT 23/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 110
MI...180 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. MOVING WNW AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT MAKING IRENE A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20-22N BETWEEN 70W-73W. IN ADDITION BANDS OF
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 65W-71W. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N23W IS PRODUCING
CLUSTERED STRONG CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

 ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS WEST AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND EXTENDS SW TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
13N23W. AN ITCZ IS NOTED FURTHER W FROM 12N38W TO 14N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER N... A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA THEN N CROSSING EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS
COVERS THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERED CONVECTION WITH
OUTBURSTS OF LIGHTING ACROSS LOUISIANA. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
TO A SURFACE TROUGH LIE ALONG THE FLORIDA W COAST FROM 30N82W TO
26N82W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 84W-94W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS PRODUCING NE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED N OF HAITI PRODUCING LINGERING
CONVECTION FROM ITS BANDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT IRENE CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTING
OUTBURSTS ARE OVER W CUBA ASSOCIATED TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN TEXAS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH
AXIS E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...S OF
PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE ALSO BEING AFFECTED BY
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS OF IRENE...SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...IN THE W
CARIBBEAN THERE IS MODERATE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AREA. OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND
ALONG THEIR COASTS DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. IN 24 HOURS...LA HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA AS WELL AS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED
BY THE CONVECTION OF IRENE BANDING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IRENE CURRENTLY CATEGORY ONE...IS FORECAST TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOVING
WNW AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEE
ABOVE SPECIAL FEATURES. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THERE IS A
1012 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 22N38W...NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO IT.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS





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