[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 230029
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM OF 106 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF IRENE.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 85 KT.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE
HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE YET
IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND WAS ALSO SEEN IN A 2230 UTC SSMIS
PASS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB BASED ON A
DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF 982 MB WITH 10 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY
15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A SMALLER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AT 48 AND
72 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AIRCRAFT
DATA AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0030Z 19.7N  68.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 20.1N  70.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 20.8N  72.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 21.5N  74.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 23.0N  75.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 26.0N  78.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 29.5N  79.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 34.0N  79.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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