[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS NEAR 19.3N 68.1W AT 1800 UTC AUG 22 OR ABOUT
150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...OR ABOUT 50 MI...
80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WNW AT 11 KT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS 85 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOSTLY N OF PUERTO RICO FROM
18N-23N BETWEEN 62W-70W. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 16N15W. A TROPICAL
WAVE WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FURTHER SW NEAR 13N17W.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N32W. THIS LOW IS
MOVING NW OVER COOLER WATERS. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THIS LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE ATLC WATERS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
DIFFUSE. FURTHER W...HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW. THE
CONVERGENCE OF NE AND SE TRADE WINDS HAVE SLOWLY RETURNED OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...THUS THE
ITCZ IS DEPICTED FROM 12N37W TO 12N56W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ANALYZED INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA NE OF 14N17W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE 1010
MB LOW FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 29W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER N... A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM CENTRAL
GEORGIA TO NE TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N E OF 93W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 93W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO
BE OVER N FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO
ADVECT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N...AND ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO PRODUCING
CONVECTION FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND TO HISPANIOLA. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-83W DUE TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AND BE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. A 1027
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N32W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N60W TO 29N80W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY
AIR ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-30N E OF 35W HAMPERING THE
1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 21N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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